WON Tip WON Llaneros W 1-4 Santa Fe W
Fixture Document · Type V
L

Llaneros W

Home Nation
D L L W L
2W 3D 5L ▼ Declining
VS
1-4
S
Santa Fe W
Away Nation
W W D D D
5W 4D 1L ▼ Declining
MODERATE
63%
Thursday, 28th May 2026 Selection
2
Backing Santa Fe W to win
Llaneros W 20%
Draw 30%
Santa Fe W 50%
H Fair Odds5
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds2
Implied Prob75.8%Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge-12.8%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Verification Code
V<BTTL<<<<<<<<W<<<<<<<<<<<<S<<<<<F<<W<<<<<<<58972DBC54BTT2607212M2607219<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
BD
Verified & stamped by BetTipsToday Verification Desk
Verifying Match Analyst · Last checked 28 May 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
2 — Santa Fe W to win
1.32
Under 2.5 Goals65% BTTS — No65%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Llaneros W vs Santa Fe W Competition: Colombia Liga Women Date: Thursday, 28th May 2026 Pick: 2 (Santa Fe W to win) Odds: 1.32 Confidence: 63% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (65%) Also: BTTS — No (65%) Verification: 58972DBC5
Head to Head
Record
0
Llaneros W
0
Draws
9
Santa Fe W
9
Meetings
4.2
Avg Goals
44%
BTTS
78%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Santa Fe W won 9 of 9 meetings.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Llaneros W
Metric
Santa Fe W
0.6
Goals For / Game
1.6
1.7
Goals Against / Game
0.5
30%
Clean Sheets
50%
2-3-5
W — D — L
5-4-1
Win Rate
20%
50%
2.2
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
35%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
L0
0-0 11.1%
0-1 18.3%
0-2 15.1%
0-3 8.3%
0-4 3.4%
0-5 1.1%
L1
1-0 6.1%
1-1 10.1%
1-2 8.3%
1-3 4.6%
1-4 1.9%
1-5 0.6%
L2
2-0 1.7%
2-1 2.8%
2-2 2.3%
2-3 1.3%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.2%
L3
3-0 0.3%
3-1 0.5%
3-2 0.4%
3-3 0.2%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
L4
4-0 0.0%
4-1 0.1%
4-2 0.1%
4-3 0.0%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
L5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.0%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 0-1(18.3%) 0-2(15.1%) 0-3(8.3%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip L=Home goals ↓   S=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Llaneros W Win
20%
5
Draw
30%
3.33
Santa Fe W Win
50%
2
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Llaneros W
Overall
2.9
Scoring
2.0
Defence
4.3
Santa Fe W
Overall
6.2
Scoring
5.3
Defence
8.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 7%
Home Win & BTTS No 12%
Draw & BTTS Yes 12%
Draw & BTTS No 21%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 17%
Away Win & BTTS No 31%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 7%
Home Win & Under 2.5 12%
Draw & Over 2.5 12%
Draw & Under 2.5 21%
Away Win & Over 2.5 17%
Away Win & Under 2.5 31%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
02.06.24LW
Llaneros W0
Santa Fe1
23.05.23LW
Santa Fe W2
Llaneros0
19.05.22LW
Santa Fe W4
Llaneros0
15.05.22LW
Llaneros W0
Santa Fe6
19.03.22LW
Llaneros W1
Santa Fe3
29.08.21LW
Santa Fe W3
Llaneros1
01.08.21LW
Llaneros W2
Santa Fe4
15.11.20LW
Llaneros W0
Santa Fe5
01.11.20LW
Santa Fe W5
Llaneros1
Recent Form
Llaneros W
22.05.26LW
Once Caldas W0
Llaneros W0
D
15.05.26LW
Llaneros W0
Dep. Cali W5
L
08.05.26LW
Inter Bogotá W2
Llaneros W0
L
01.05.26LW
Llaneros W2
Junior W1
W
23.04.26LW
Millonarios W4
Llaneros W0
L
12.04.26LW
Llaneros W2
Inter Palmira W0
W
30.03.26LW
Llaneros W0
Real Santander W0
D
25.03.26LW
Llaneros W1
Orsomarso W1
D
15.03.26LW
Ind. Medellin W2
Llaneros W1
L
10.03.26LW
Llaneros W0
Fortaleza W2
L
Santa Fe W
23.05.26LW
Inter Palmira W0
Santa Fe W2
W
17.05.26LW
Santa Fe W2
Ind. Medellin W0
W
11.05.26LW
Junior W1
Santa Fe W1
D
03.05.26LW
Santa Fe W0
Millonarios W0
D
26.04.26LW
Dep. Pasto W0
Santa Fe W0
D
19.04.26LW
Santa Fe W3
Inter Bogotá W1
W
28.03.26LW
America de Cali W1
Santa Fe W2
W
23.03.26LW
Santa Fe W1
Dep. Cali W1
D
15.03.26LW
Orsomarso W1
Santa Fe W0
L
09.03.26LW
Santa Fe W5
Bucaramanga W0
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Thursday, 28th May 2026, Llaneros W host Santa Fe W in Colombia Liga Women. We recommend Santa Fe W to win as the standout selection.

Llaneros W arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Santa Fe W are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 5W 4D 1L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Llaneros W, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Santa Fe W's 9, with 0 draws from 9 encounters. Both teams have scored in 44% of those meetings.

Our verdict: santa fe w to win at odds of 1.32 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Making a steady profit from betting requires a cool head and a lot of patience, and this upcoming Colombia Liga Women clash is a perfect test case. To beat the bookmakers, you have to completely ignore the news and just follow the data. The home outfit’s season sets the stage for the odds.

While their overall form dictates the opening lines, their immediate trends hold the real key to winning. Looking closely at their latest outings exposes their true capabilities in the final third and exactly how strong they are at the back. The traveling squad demands a very careful review too.

We have to balance their long-term form against the fresh evidence of their recent games to figure out their true worth in the current market. Previous meetings also play a massive role in shaping what we expect to see today. Checking the head-to-head records is vital for spotting tactical mismatches and historical dominance that basic algorithms always overlook.

Combining those past dynamics with current momentum makes it easy to spot the actual winner. After filtering all the stats, the best route to profit is clear. Our chosen bet is 2, taking full advantage of the current @1.32 odds.

As we wait for the game to go live, the pre-game work is done. The final score will eventually settle the tickets and the debate. Read the rest of our tips to stay ahead.

BD
BetTipsToday Verification Desk
Verifying Match Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a tip is stamped for publication.
Reviewed on 28 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Llaneros W vs Santa Fe W?
Our selection is 2 — Santa Fe W to win, priced at approximately 1.32. Tip confidence rating: 63%.
What is Llaneros W's current form?
Llaneros W have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Santa Fe W been performing recently?
Santa Fe W have recorded 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Llaneros W lead with 0 wins versus Santa Fe W's 9, with 0 draws across 9 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 44%.
⚠️
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