LOST Tip LOST Wolfsburg W 3-3 Union Berlin W
Fixture Document · Type V
W

Wolfsburg W

Home Nation
W W W W W
7W 2D 1L ▼ Declining
VS
3-3
U
Union Berlin W
Away Nation
W D W D L
5W 3D 2L ▲ Improving
MODERATE
60%
Sunday, 29th March 2026 Selection
1
Backing Wolfsburg W to win
Wolfsburg W 50%
Draw 30%
Union Berlin W 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob81.3%Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge-21.3%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Verification Code
V<BTTW<<<<<<<<<W<<<<<<<<<<<U<<<<<B<<<<<<W<<<39944CA044BTT2607212M2607219<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
BD
Verified & stamped by BetTipsToday Verification Desk
Verifying Match Analyst · Last checked 29 Mar 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Wolfsburg W to win
1.23
Over 2.5 Goals65% Over 1.5 Goals85% BTTS — Yes70%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Wolfsburg W vs Union Berlin W Competition: Bundesliga Women Date: Sunday, 29th March 2026 Pick: 1 (Wolfsburg W to win) Odds: 1.23 Confidence: 60% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%) Also: BTTS — Yes (70%) Verification: 39944CA04
Head to Head
Record
2
Wolfsburg W
0
Draws
1
Union Berlin W
3
Meetings
4.3
Avg Goals
33%
BTTS
67%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Wolfsburg W won 2 of the last 3 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Wolfsburg W
Metric
Union Berlin W
1.5
Goals For / Game
2.7
0.9
Goals Against / Game
1.4
50%
Clean Sheets
10%
7-2-1
W — D — L
5-3-2
Win Rate
70%
50%
3.3
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
70%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
U0
U1
U2
U3
U4
U5
W0
0-0 3.9%
0-1 7.0%
0-2 6.3%
0-3 3.8%
0-4 1.7%
0-5 0.6%
W1
1-0 5.6%
1-1 10.1%
1-2 9.1%
1-3 5.5%
1-4 2.5%
1-5 0.9%
W2
2-0 4.1%
2-1 7.3%
2-2 6.6%
2-3 4.0%
2-4 1.8%
2-5 0.6%
W3
3-0 2.0%
3-1 3.6%
3-2 3.2%
3-3 1.9%
3-4 0.9%
3-5 0.3%
W4
4-0 0.7%
4-1 1.3%
4-2 1.2%
4-3 0.7%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.1%
W5
5-0 0.2%
5-1 0.4%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(7.3%) 1-0(5.6%) 2-0(4.1%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip W=Home goals ↓   U=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Wolfsburg W Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Union Berlin W Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Wolfsburg W
Overall
7.6
Scoring
5.0
Defence
7.0
Union Berlin W
Overall
5.9
Scoring
9.0
Defence
5.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 34%
Home Win & BTTS No 14%
Draw & BTTS Yes 12%
Draw & BTTS No 5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 25%
Away Win & BTTS No 11%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 31%
Home Win & Under 2.5 17%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 6%
Away Win & Over 2.5 23%
Away Win & Under 2.5 12%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
04.11.25
BUN: Union Berlin1
Wolfsburg4
10.08.25
CF: Wolfsburg0
Union Berlin2
08.10.17
POK: Union Berlin0
Wolfsburg6
Recent Form
Wolfsburg W
24.03.26
UWCL: Wolfsburg1
Lyon0
W
21.03.26
BUN: Hoffenheim0
Wolfsburg1
W
18.03.26
BUN: Jena0
Wolfsburg2
W
15.03.26
BUN: Wolfsburg2
Bayer Leverkusen1
W
11.03.26
POK: Wolfsburg1
Eintracht Frankfurt0
W
22.02.26
BUN: Bayern Munich4
Wolfsburg1
L
19.02.26
UWCL: Juventus0
Wolfsburg2
W
15.02.26
BUN: Wolfsburg1
SGS Essen1
D
12.02.26
UWCL: Wolfsburg2
Juventus2
D
02.02.26
BUN: Wolfsburg2
FC Köln1
W
Union Berlin W
23.03.26
BUN: Union Berlin4
Werder Bremen1
W
14.03.26
BUN: RB Leipzig2
Union Berlin2
D
20.02.26
BUN: Union Berlin2
FC Köln1
W
14.02.26
BUN: Freiburg1
Union Berlin1
D
08.02.26
BUN: Union Berlin1
Carl Zeiss Jena2
L
31.01.26
BUN: SGS Essen2
Union Berlin4
W
23.01.26
BUN: Union Berlin1
Bayer Leverkusen2
L
07.01.26
CF: Castellon0
Union Berlin8
W
20.12.25
BUN: 1. FC Nürnberg1
Union Berlin2
W
15.12.25
BUN: Union Berlin2
Eintracht Frankfurt2
D
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Sunday, 29th March 2026, Wolfsburg W host Union Berlin W in Bundesliga Women. We recommend Wolfsburg W to win as the standout selection.

Wolfsburg W arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Union Berlin W are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 5W 3D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Wolfsburg W, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Union Berlin W's 1, with 0 draws from 3 encounters. Both teams have scored in 33% of those meetings.

Our verdict: wolfsburg w to win at odds of 1.23 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Making a steady profit from betting requires a cool head and a lot of patience, and this upcoming Bundesliga Women clash is a perfect test case. To beat the bookmakers, you have to completely ignore the news and just follow the data. The home outfit’s season sets the stage for the odds.

While their overall form dictates the opening lines, their immediate trends hold the real key to winning. Looking closely at their latest outings exposes their true capabilities in the final third and exactly how strong they are at the back. The traveling squad demands a very careful review too.

We have to balance their long-term form against the fresh evidence of their recent games to figure out their true worth in the current market. Previous meetings also play a massive role in shaping what we expect to see today. Checking the head-to-head records is vital for spotting tactical mismatches and historical dominance that basic algorithms always overlook.

Combining those past dynamics with current momentum makes it easy to spot the actual winner. After filtering all the stats, the best route to profit is clear. Our chosen bet is 1, taking full advantage of the current @1.23 odds.

As we wait for the game to go live, the pre-game work is done. The final score will eventually settle the tickets and the debate. Read the rest of our tips to stay ahead.

BD
BetTipsToday Verification Desk
Verifying Match Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a tip is stamped for publication.
Reviewed on 29 Mar 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Wolfsburg W vs Union Berlin W?
Our selection is 1 — Wolfsburg W to win, priced at approximately 1.23. Tip confidence rating: 60%.
What is Wolfsburg W's current form?
Wolfsburg W have won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Union Berlin W been performing recently?
Union Berlin W have recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Wolfsburg W lead with 2 wins versus Union Berlin W's 1, with 0 draws across 3 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 33%.
⚠️
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